Since the beginning of the 2012-2013 basketball season I have been tracking the foul or defend situation at the NBA, college and high school levels.
301 late game situations have been analyzed since Nov. 1 where a team is up by three points, on defense with less than :07 to play.
Having talked to many coaches at all levels and watching a ton of games/highlights, and scanning websites for play-by-play, I have come away with some interesting and rather surprising numbers.
I have decided to use a “time out” and take a break from the study. I was thinking of picking it back up later in the season when we come down the stretch. Quite possibly for the conference tournaments and of course the NCAA tournament and the NBA playoffs. Just to see if anything changes in terms of numbers.
Here are the final numbers as of Jan. 12, 2013
301 total situations
On 30 possessions a team has fouled – 29 of those 30 have won the game without going to overtime. The only team that lost was Kent State. And that’s a story everyone needs to know. I’ll get to that later.
That leaves 271 defend situations: 48 times the team on offense made a three-point shot to tie the game and force overtime (17%).
I will have the results from overtime very soon. But as my guy Coach Lok likes to say, “results in OT are irrelevant, the decision was made…”
NBA Updated: (As of Jan. 12, 2013)
57 total situations
7 have fouled all 7 won the game (Celtics 3 x’s, Warriors 3 x’s and Blazers)
10 gave up a three point make.
201 total situations
13 fouled – 12 won the game
28 gave up a three point make.
43 total situations
10 fouled – all 10 won the game
10 gave up a three point make